Portfolio Update. Broken Record.

 Markets up again, stocks up.

Position changes:

• Sold some South-East Asian stocks.  Moved them into trading the US market.  Buy stuff thats going up.
• Increased exposure to LATAM.
• Reduced crypto, and sold Bitcoin.  Shorted Microstrategy.

Might change these soon:

• Reduce exposure to China and healthcare.  Chin has done well but the next quarter's outlook is negative.  Healthcare keeps getting whipped around by Trump.
• Increase my Microstrategy short, as it rebounds tonight.

I am just buying stuff thats going up and not overbought.  Its boring, and it doesn't give me much to write about, but I'd rather make money.  The stock market is not a place to look for excitement in life.

My aim is to ride the bull market up, then sit out or short the next bear or correction.  Possibly in 2Q26.  If I can do that, I can quit my day job.

Portfolio Update

Market is up, portfolio is following it, so I'm happy:

  - Gold making new highs: My 2 gold royalty stocks (sandstorm and EMX) have received buyout offers, unfortunately shares not cash.  Will probably hold the acquirers' shares - still wanna be long gold and there's not much left in the mid-cap royalty space to buy.  My other gold stock (Equinox) merged with another company, then hit new highs after relasing better than expected results. I got all these from Mining Stock Monkey's substack (he also has a free youtube channel)

  - LATAM all up.  Holding Chile/Columbian banks, waiting for the next election for the governments to turn to the right.  Nubank (Brazil) released excellent results - but next year's election is a coin toss - hold for now.

  - Small China position (Didi) up.  Fundamentally it can still double from here, especially if it can re-list in HK.  I'll hold it till Hedgeye signals to sell (KBA).  China is always a trade for me.

  - My fat-fingered Ethereum trade up bigly.  Will start selling around 5K, or when Hedgeye's signal weakens.

  - Nam Cheong up.

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Whats NOT working:

  - SEA.  Indonesia and Malaysia:

     * Indonesia riots.  Will probably sell my longer term Indonesian holding, country is a poor, corrupt powder keg.  Against this, medium term, it'll go up if the USD falls.

     * Hartalega (gloves).  Hit ten year lows!  Probably Trump.  Malaysia has signed a trade deal with Trump (19% tariffs), but they are courting China.  There is political risk here.  Malaysia is the perfect small, inconsequential country for Trump to smack around a bit to show what happens if you sit on the fence....after he's finished with India and Canada.   Not sure if I should keep this one, its hard to value a cyclical.

    * Delfi results sucked as expected, from high cocoa prices.

  - Oil stocks.  Especially CNQ (Canada).  Probably Trump Tariffs again, combined with the newly-elected gay Canadian government - most Canadian oil is exported/refined in the US.  My Norwegian oil stock is flat.  Hedgeye's trend for oil recently went bullish, dunno if it will stay that way.  I can hold these 2 stocks long term.

  - US Gas Pipelines: Flat, paying dividends,fairly valued not over-valued yet.  Just hold.

  - Turkey (TUR), I fucked up, bought a 2% position too high, fomo.  To cut loss.

  - Probably sell my Seatrium, a 1% position too small to monitor.

Quick Update

Sold my Uranium stocks (from June), as Hedgeye's trend turned bearish.  I don't know if its a false signal, but since I bought using Hedgeye's trend signals, I'll sell by them.  Could be from the possibility of peace with Russia.  Made 12% over 2 months, which is OK.

Also sold my small position in LEU, a US uranium enricher which I bought last year.  It was a tiny 0.5% position which went up 3x.  Can't complain.

I bought 8% Ethereum in the brief (couple-of-days) correction at the start of August.  Also bought more IWM and Q's in the current correction.  I want to me more than fully invested for this bull market.  I'm now 119% invested.

Quick Update

Correction

I was caught by surprise, but still think this is a short term correction.  The market went up too far and some FOMO has to be shaken out.  It might be over on Monday, or may last 2 weeks.  Everything still points to the bull continuing: VIX at 20, the economic outlook for the next 6 months, and Trump needing to pump after that.

I am 112% invested.  Bought a little ETH and Q's on Friday.  Would like to load up on more ETH.

Other Risks

Trump's reversal on Russia and the passing of the 'Russia Bill' - giving him authority to levy a 500% tariff on countries that import Russian oil after 8th Aug - are good for oil stocks, but bad for India, China and (maybe) Brazil.  It makes it less likely for a trade deal to be reached, more likely for the world to spilt into different trading blocks.

• Russia produces ~9m bpd, out of approximately 105m bpd used worldwide.
• Trump still wants to keep the oil price down, and the Saudi's will help.  We may see oil up to $100, but I don't see it getting any higher.
• A 50% tariff decreases the chance of a US-China trade deal.  
• Non-Aligned countries, like India/Brazil have more incentive to go over to China's side.
• India hit.  How much of their recent hot GDP growth has been from cheap Russian energy?
• Increases the change of an Iran deal.  Iran is currently not a threat, even to Israel.  Israelis gotta finish their war quickly.  Short term peace in the ME.  Not lasting peace, while the Iranian regime is still around.
• If countries don't buy Russian oil/gas, what happens to it?  Either the pipe/ship it all to countries that don't care (like China), or stop production.
• And if so, Russia runs our of money.  What can they sell?  Gold down?
• Buyers buy from the US instead.  And the whole world wants US LNG ro reduce their bilateral trade deficits.  Longer tanker or LNG Carrier routes.
• What if the US navy starts enforcement against 'dark fleet' ships carrying Russian oil/gas.

My oil stocks should do well.  I have no India exposure, but some China and Brazil.

No Sign of the US Bull Market Ending

 From Hedgeye:

• We're in Quad 2
• Implied Volatility falling.  eg; SPY, IWM, Bitcoin
• 1-month realised SPY vol still below 3-month vol. 
• USD is now rising (short term).  However gold, copper, oil correlations to USD have dropped.  Gold and copper bullish trend.  Oil's trend whipsawing.  Industrial commodities, China, Korea and semis bullish.  The rising USD affects some EMs - they are now short Philippines (which I am still long through the Philippines Stock Exchange), and India (I no longer hold through FIH.U).

Made some short term trades, small positions.  Bought some:

• Crypto stonks
• 1-month calls on IWM.

Most of my Asian stocks are going up.  They're all different, company-by-company.  I'm a few percent over 100% long:

Yes, there are signs of exuberance, especially for tech/AI.  But we haven't seen Hawk Tuah, Cum Rocket or ETH Rock or levels of stupidity yet. No signs the bubble pops yet.  Enjoy it while it lasts.

Buying more

The correction I expected did not happen:

• The Market corrected Monday night, after being overbought
• That night Trump released "Tariff Letters" promising new tariffs by 1st Aug to 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand.  But the next day, Asian markets didn't care.  
• The US market recovered the next day, even as Trump promised more Tariff Letters.

When the market doesn't fall on bad news its time to buy.  Last night I bought more Latam stocks and Didi (paid report) - I am finally buying China as there are rumours that Xi has lost power, and they have projected growth this quarter...so if I can find any China stocks I would like to hold, I may as well.  There is a chance they announce that Xi is being given a ceremonial post far away somewhere in August.

Also topping up on silver, and considering some energy related companies.   I am now over 100% invested and would like to reach 110%.  Themes are inflation, commodities and EMs.  And just a little bit of China.

Sandstorm

Sandstorm, one of the gold royalty companies I own, has had a takeover offer.  That is the reason why their price has been continually rising the past month.  The offer, if accepted by 2/3rds of shareholders, will give me shares of Royal Gold in exchange.  I'll probably accept the RGLD shares, either partially or fully.

Cut back some exposure

Cut back some exposure, because there may be a correction next month.  Hedgeye is signalling a probable quad 4 for July.  And Trump's 90-day tariff pause ends on the 8th.   Trump needs to be tougher to remove his chicken label.  The market is ignoring this now.  

Sold Bitcoin & Mexico at small profits.  And adding a small short position.

If we get a correction - and I am not sure - then I think its a quick one, and a buying opportunity